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Independent observatory • Est. 2009 • 46k readers
IT'S NOT
WARMING
AS THEY SAY.
We track what thermometers, satellites and glaciers actually do — not what models predict. Arctic ice, UAH temperatures, solar cycles and 2000 years of context. Cold facts, warm design.
0.13°CUAH warming / decade
46%Antarctic ice above mean
1979Satellite era start
2000 yrsHistorical context
❄ SATELLITE DATA SHOWS PAUSE • 🧊 ARCTIC ICE REBOUNDS • ☀️ SUN DRIVES CLIMATE • 📉 NO ACCELERATION IN SEA LEVEL • ❄ SATELLITE DATA SHOWS PAUSE • 🧊 ARCTIC ICE REBOUNDS • ☀️ SUN DRIVES CLIMATE • 📉 NO ACCELERATION IN SEA LEVEL •
01 /// RAW OBSERVATIONS
Data over drama
Three datasets the headlines never show you in full. No adjustments, no cherry-picked start dates — full series 1979-2026.
UAH Satellite • Lower Troposphere
+0.13°C per decade. That's it.
Models predicted 0.30°C+. Satellites — the most global, most objective thermometers — show less than half. El Niños spike, then fall back.
Sea level • Tide gauges
3.1 mm/yr — linear for 120 years. No acceleration.
Miami, Brest, Sydney: same steady rise since 1900. Islands grow, not drown.
Greening Earth
Planet 14% greener
NASA: CO2 fertilizes deserts. Crop yields at record highs.
Why CO2 is life →
🧭
We go where it's cold to find the truth.
Svalbard • Greenland • Antarctica stations • 14 expeditions
02 /// ABOUT THE PROJECT
We are thermometer maximalists
ItsNotWarming.com started in 2009 when a physics teacher plotted UAH data and asked: why does the graph on TV look nothing like this? 17 years later we are a 6-person observatory of skeptics, data nerds and photographers. We don't take energy money. We take thermometers seriously.
✓ No models
Only satellites, buoys, tide gauges, ice cores.
Only satellites, buoys, tide gauges, ice cores.
✓ Full context
Show 1979-2026, plus 2000 years behind.
Show 1979-2026, plus 2000 years behind.
✓ Open sources
Every chart links raw CSV inside article.
Every chart links raw CSV inside article.
✓ Correction policy
Wrong? We fix publicly in 24h.
Wrong? We fix publicly in 24h.
We believe climate changes — always has. Vikings farmed Greenland, Romans grew grapes in York, then the Little Ice Age froze the Thames. Today's mild rebound from 1850 is normal, not apocalyptic. Our mission: put the pause, the ice and the sun back into the conversation.
03 /// MYTHS VS MEASUREMENTS
Six scares, six charts
🔥
“Hottest year ever!”
By 0.02°C — less than thermometer error. 1930s heatwaves in the US still unbeaten. 1998, 2016, 2023 spikes = El Niño, not CO2 trend.
MYTH: BOILINGFACT: +0.8°C / 150YRS
🧊
“Arctic ice-free by 2013!”
13 predictions failed. 2024 minimum 12% above 2012 record low. Antarctic hits record highs. Polar bears at 30k — 5x 1960s.
MYTH: GONEFACT: STABLE
🌊
“Islands drowning!”
Tuvalu +8% land area, Maldives building airports. Tide gauges: linear, no jump. Adaptation beats panic.
MYTH: SINKINGFACT: GROWING
🌀
“More hurricanes!”
US landfalls at 120-year low 2006-2016. Accumulated cyclone energy flat since 1980. Deaths from disasters -98% since 1920.
MYTH: EXTREMEFACT: FLAT
☀️
“Sun doesn't matter”
Solar Grand Minimum approaches. Cosmic rays, clouds, oceans explain 70% variance. CO2 is 0.04% of air.
MYTH: SETTLEDFACT: SOLAR
🌾
“Crops failing!”
Wheat, corn, rice all-time highs. 1B fewer hungry vs 1990. Greening feeds 500M extra. Warmth + CO2 = food.
MYTH: FAMINEFACT: RECORD
04 /// COLD HISTORY
2000 years in 90 seconds
Today is neither hottest nor fastest. Context kills catastrophism.
900
🏛️ Medieval Warm Period
Vikings farm Greenland, wine in England. 1-2°C warmer than today, no SUVs.
1650
❄️ Little Ice Age
Thames frost fairs, glaciers crush villages. Cold kills — famines across Europe.
1979
🛰️ Satellites begin
UAH & RSS start true global record. Gold standard we still use.
1998
📈 The Great Pause begins
Super El Niño, then 18 years with no statistically significant warming.
2009
💡 ItsNotWarming founded
One chart, one blog, one question: where's the warming?
2026
🧊 Today: mild, green, stable
+1.1°C since 1850, ice stable, greening +14%. Time for calm adaptation.
05 /// THE JOURNAL — UPDATED WEEKLY
Fresh cold cuts
Click any story to open full analysis. Each article = charts, sources, raw numbers.
06 /// HONEST ANSWERS
Questions? Good.
Skepticism is science. Here are the ones we get every day.
Aren't you denying climate change? −
No. Climate always changes. We deny that 0.13°C/decade is an emergency, that models beat observations, and that cropping graphs to 1980 is honest. Warming is real and mild — panic is manufactured.
What about 97% consensus? +
Debunked surveys. The famous Cook paper counted methods sections, not scientists. Real surveys of meteorologists show deep division on catastrophe, not on basic physics.
Why trust satellites over surface stations? +
Surface stations suffer urban heat, airport tarmac, missing Arctic. Satellites scan 80% of globe twice daily with same instruments. UAH and RSS agree: mild warming.
Is CO2 really plant food? +
Yes. Greenhouses pump to 1000ppm for yield. NASA satellites confirm greening in Sahel, India, China. More CO2 = less water needed per leaf.
What should we do instead of Net Zero? +
Adapt, innovate, prosper: flood defenses like Dutch, drought crops, nuclear power, wealth to afford resilience. Cold kills 10x more than heat — affordable energy saves lives.
❄ THE COOL LETTER — 46,000 SUBSCRIBERS
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Free forever. Unsubscribe when the Arctic melts (so never).
No spam. No selling data. Just ice.